The timeline for achieving Artificial General Intelligence
The present average estimate for the attainment of AGI (artificial general intelligence) has been compiled by gathering insights from various distinguished individuals and companies within the field of AI. These estimates have been amalgamated to create a countdown towards the projected achievement of AGI. In instances where date ranges are provided as estimates, we utilize the lower end to formulate our countdown, thereby resulting in a slightly more ambitious average estimate than the individual estimates might suggest.
It’s important to note that definitions of AGI can vary among contributors, and thus, our countdown remains open to each contributor’s own interpretation of the precise meaning of AGI.
As per the current compilation of contributions, the average estimate suggests that AGI will be achieved by October 1st, 2025.
Here’s the rewritten version of the contributors’ list and additional comments:
Current Contributors to the Estimate:
- Jacob Valdez – Predicts AGI by December 31, 2023.
- Geoffrey Hinton – Initially estimated AGI by April 1, 2028, but revised it to a range of 5 to 20 years, down from 20 to 50 years as of March 2023.
- Steve Digital – Foresees AGI by January 1, 2025.
Invitations Sent to:
- Elon Musk
- Robert Scoble
Additional Thoughts on the Estimate:
One contributor expressed optimism for AGI’s arrival, expecting it no later than the beginning of 2025, attributing this timeline to significant progress in AI witnessed in recent years. However, they also acknowledge concerns about the potential implications for humanity and express hope for using AGI to enhance global well-being.
Other Contributions:
Despite invitations, some individuals declined to provide estimates, citing the vague or poorly defined nature of AGI. Here are some of their comments:
- “Alas, respectfully, I shall decline to predict: if the object of the prediction is so vague, any prediction is meaningless.”
- “The whole notion of AGI is poorly specified. It is ridiculous to try to estimate a date for an undefined event.”
- “We’re going to sit out this debate.”
The article acknowledges the challenges of defining AGI precisely and the likelihood of ongoing disagreement even if some claim it has arrived. Human intelligence itself remains incompletely understood, adding complexity to the task of defining and predicting AGI.